‹ Drafts

Core Ideas: Victor Vescovo’s Five Deeps Expedition

Risk Management

  • Accept 90% confidence for first attempts at the unknown—10% failure risk is acceptable for breakthrough ventures
  • Confidence intervals improve with each iteration; the first attempt is always the most dangerous
  • The line between adventurous and reckless is “being an absolute expert at risk management”
  • Design for passive safety: “The laws of physics would have to be violated for me not to come back”
  • “I believe in two things: mathematics and titanium”

Engineering Philosophy

  • Design for the primary requirement (going down), not convention (submarines look like torpedoes)
  • Non-traditional expertise often produces better results than formal credentials
  • Titanium over steel: strength-to-weight ratio enables human capacity at practical size
  • Test components individually when full-system testing is impossible; trust mathematical models
  • Real-world testing reveals vulnerabilities that theory cannot predict

Private Sector Advantage

  • 15-minute decisions vs. months of committee deliberation
  • Tight decision cycle: funder + requirements-setter + operator as single person
  • 4-5x cost efficiency over government
  • Government’s biggest barrier: permitting, not technology or money
  • Governments have abandoned technological frontiers; private individuals now lead

Leadership

  • Motivate engineers by invoking competition: “I know another team who could do it”
  • Leave experts alone to solve problems; don’t micromanage during crises
  • Distinguish protocol violation from actual threat when making autonomous decisions
  • Build culture that celebrates audacity and finds humor in adversity

Life Philosophy

  • Three barriers to human potential: laziness, fear, lack of self-discipline
  • Self-discipline is the master virtue: “Control your mind, control your reality”
  • Comfort is the enemy of achievement
  • “None of us make it out of here alive”—death is certain, so risk-aversion is irrational
  • Wealth without vision is moral failure
  • American/Texan culture treats failure as badge of honor, enabling dynamism

Ocean Exploration

  • 75% of seafloor unmapped = half of Earth unexplored
  • Ocean is harder than space: 1→1100 atmospheres vs. 1→0
  • You can survive in space for years; ocean destroys craft within hours
  • Every deep trench dive discovered new species (40 million years of isolated evolution)
  • Chemosynthetic bacteria at depth: implications for extraterrestrial life

Mathematics and Analysis

  • Finite element analysis enables confidence when physical testing is impossible
  • Acoustic GPS triangulation for underwater navigation
  • Same analytical rigor applies across domains: investment, military, exploration
  • “Study the hell out of it” before any major decision

Key Quotes

  • “I really believe in two things: mathematics and titanium”
  • “The laws of physics would have to be violated for me not to come back”
  • “If you don’t do risk management correctly, you’re just playing Russian roulette”
  • “Control your mind and you can control your reality” (from Dune)
  • “We are all living in a teenage horror movie”
  • “If the government had done it, it would have cost four or five times as much”
  • “The biggest barrier to deep ocean exploration is not the technology, it’s not even the money—it’s government permitting”
  • “When am I coming back to the Southern Ocean?” (justifying breaking protocol)
  • “You scratch a Scot, you find a pirate”

Future Frontiers

  • Next-gen submersible: 8K cameras, artificial muscle arms, 5-10x sonar range
  • Satellite-based coastal mapping to 30m depth
  • Asteroid mining: “the first trillionaire”
  • De-extinction technology (woolly mammoth) as conservation tool
  • 6 of 23 deep trenches still unexplored—“really bothering me”